Sunday, May 21, 2017

Demographics, Development, and Growth Models

In this post, I'll be discussing the impact of demographics on economies, development, growth rates, and economic models more generally. This post will discuss a model that uses demographics and productivity growth to determine a country's growth potential over a longer-time horizon. In order to do so, I'll split this up into the different kinda demographic profiles. Then, I'll go into development levels which'll lead me to the differing structure of growth models and their adaptability to different kinds of economies. After all that, I'll summarize the point of the model.

Demographic Profiles:
We can split up demographic profiles into three broad groups: pyramidal, stable, and inverted (as shown in chart below). A normal demography for a developing country is pyramidal wherein there's lots of young people and not many old people. Due to the cost of providing basic infrastructure and social services, countries with this demography are often in the 3rd world and poor.
Image result for population pyramid

A stable demography is most commonly seen in a developed economy or a developing economy with rising productivity. It's a population structure that can replace itself over the long-term, but the society won't see much population growth without immigration. The only OECD country in this position today is the US and France.

An inverted demography is the most common demography in the OECD today. Almost every OECD country has an inverted demography (as does China along with a few other poorer countries in Eastern Europe). The only thing that differs across the OECD, China, and the other poorer countries is the degree of the inversion. In places like Scandinavia, the demography is inverted, but not that inverted as TFR has been ~1.8 or so. So while there's an inversion, it's not that bad in places like Scandinavia.

When you're a developing country, having a pyramidal population structure makes it very expensive for the society to provide everyone with basic social services and investments in items like healthcare and education. In such a demography, it may actually be economically healthy to reduce fertility rates cuz that ensures every child basic social services and investments in health and education that can really cause productivity to soar. In this type of demography, it's very feasible to see improved growth with reductions in populations from soaring productivity of investments in health and education.

So in the 3rd world, shifting from a pyramidal population structure to a stable or inverted structure may not be bad at all. On the contrary, such a shift may actually be necessary, healthy, and positive--especially over long time horizons. In the developed world, it's a very different story.

Most developed countries will see much slower productivity increase than the developing world simply cuz they're ahead and aren't playing catch-up, so they can't import technologies and things of the sort to rapidly cause a surge in productivity. Developed countries also often have much larger welfare states (especially in Europe, though less so in Asia). What that means is that the large welfare state with an inverted demography imposes a high cost burden on those paying into those welfare systems.

In order for first world countries with inverted demographics to cope with the pressure on their working populations, they must either let in more immigrants or cut benefits or suffer from the drag of higher debt/taxes. What this does is reduce resources for entrepreneurs and risk-takers while the inverted population makes consumption led growth more difficult. Due to the inability for future consumption levels to sustain themselves, this demography leads to a drop in productive investment opportunities.

In other words, the direct conclusion of an inverted demography without mass immigration is structurally lower growth unless you see large productivity increases, which're being seen in places like Japan and South Korea largely due to a mix of their reliance on commodity/raw materials/energy imports in a time of collapsing commodity/energy prices and improvements in automation, industrial robotics, etc..

Growth Models:
Obviously, demography has a large impact on a country's economic growth. A country with a growing population can sustain higher levels of consumption, and thus absorb higher levels of productive investment whose purpose is future consumption. This is true for both a developing and developed economy with a growing population.

In a developing economy, the potential for rising productivity is much higher cuz they're playing catch-up. In such a case, it's not necessary for a falling population to lead to lower growth in consumption over a medium to long-term horizon. In the short run, very high growth rates are possible under cases when a developing economy has a growing population or a falling population. In the long-term, there will be problems in terms of the dependency ratio though.

In higher income countries, low population fertility rates and low (or the wrong kind of) immigration are a certain drag on growth unless productivity growth grows very sharply. What's the likelihood of high productivity growth in large welfare states and rigid bureaucracies? It's not very high, so growth becomes very difficult in countries with these kinds of demographics and economic models that rely on large welfare states. In these kinds of countries, future economic growth will be tough to come by without serious structural reform.

In countries with stable demographic structures, both developing and developed countries will see long-term per capita growth that stays roughly in line with productivity. For a developed economy, a stable population and well-controlled immigration will generally yield ~3% economic growth, maybe a bit higher depending on productivity increases.

Developed countries with growing populations have the institutions to absorb more amounts of investment productively than developing countries, so it's actually the developed world with stable demographics and positive immigration that's best fit for a controlled infrastructure build-out. In addition to that, a consumption drive growth model can work as well.

The fundamental point of this post is that long-term growth rates are always determined by structural factors. These structural factors are mathematically driven by productivity growth, population growth, and how people work (which's also structural, dependent on labor policy, etc). Hence, the applicability of growth models and economic models is entirely dependent on these structural factors.

What does this model of demographics tell us about future growth rates in the world today? It tells us that most of the developing world will continue to see surging productivity. That means many of them (like China) will be able to offset falling populations and falling workforce size by a surge in productivity. However, it also implies that most of the OECD will be stuck with low to no growth for decades unless productivity surges.

The primary exception in the OECD will be the United States. Another exception in the OECD may be France simply due to demographics. The rest of the OECD will see little to no growth unless they open themselves up to immigration, can filter these new immigrants effectively, have effective structural reform, and all while seeing surging productivity growth.

Tuesday, March 28, 2017

Structural Goals of Development Model and Basic Ideas/Fundamentals of New Development Model

In my previous post, I proposed a new development model to correct economic imbalances. In this post, I'll discuss the structural goals of the model alongside the basic ideas of the development model and the foundational underpinnings of the underlying economic goals of the model. This post will be split up into 7 sections:
1. Introduction
2. Energy Infrastructure
3. Immigration and Wages
4. Manufacturing and Economic Diversification
5. Taxation
6. Preventing Imbalances and Allowing for Economic Adjustments

1. Introduction:
The primary goals of this development model are:
1. a well-diversified economy
2. high wages to sustain strong internal demand
3. centrally directed investment from both public and private sources
4. an energy/infrastructure system to serve the needs of the 21st and 22nd centuries

Since ~1970-1980, the US has been running persistent trade deficits alongside a persistent trade deficit in manufactures. We've also seen rising productivity in manufacturing. So the logical consequence would imply that the US has been losing manufacturing jobs while manufacturing drops as a percentage of the economy in exchange for technology, finance, and services. Of course, this's exactly what's happened.

A well diversified economy has strong finance, non-financial services, manufacturing, trade, agriculture, and technology sectors. In order to get a fully diversified economy, a good target is ~15-20% of GDP towards manufacturing. We can also expand the portion of the export section too. In order to do this, we first need to protect development capital invested in manufacturing. The protection policies that I find appropriate for today's world are a destination-based cash flow tax (Paul Ryan's "border adjustment tax") and a tax on American assets held abroad. Not only will the protectionism help protect development capital in American manufacturing, but it'll help exporters as well. So protection would hit two birds with one stone.

In terms of infrastructure, the best way to do it is with a mix of public and private capital. Public capital will be able to supplement what private capital could not do. The infrastructure needs to be the basis for an economy that can sustain and provide a base building block for the country for the next century or more. This infrastructure will range from a core energy base to a manufacturing base to other strong sectors.

2. Energy Infrastructure:
In the case of energy infrastructure, one of the biggest problems in the 21st century is the negative impact of extractive industries that entrench rent-seekers and don't embed into ecological life-cycles. The solution for this problem is to shift to other forms of energy ranging from nuclear energy to renewables. When I speak of nuclear energy, I specifically mean the thorium reactors which're much more environmentally friendly. By renewable energy, I mean things ranging from solar energy to wind to geothermal to even biomass.

Nuclear energy investment never comes from the private sector due to its inhibitive cost. So investment into new nuclear technology, new nuclear power plants, and adaptation of existing nuclear power plants must come from the government. For new technology, the goal should be the development of thorium nuclear reactors. As time goes on, the costs of investment will fall while technology gets better. Currently, the US gets 10% of its energy consumption from nuclear energy. Getting to 25-35% nuclear energy within 15-20 years is not only within possibility, but realistically achievable--provided political idiocy doesn't get in the way (a big if).

Then, we've got investment in an infrastructure grid to deal with renewable energy. When an economy starts using renewable energy, the energy coming from solar and wind doesn't necessarily show up all at once. So an electric grid needs the ability to switch fuel sources on a dime from when the energy source turns off. Also, we'd need to adapt the federal grid so that it's possible for solar power in California or Arizona at 3-5 PM (during peak energy collection) can be sold in the East Coast at 6-9 PM (where there's peak energy demand). All of this requires a ~$1 trillion investment (>33% more than Peter Zeihan's estimate) in grid infrastructure over ~10-15 years to totally revamp the US electric grid (although a full federal grid infrastructure investment is not necessary and most of this can be financed by private capital--and already is).

In the case of renewable energy, there's many hydroelectric dams in the US that generate power, but those dams use old technology and need to be rebuilt. An infrastructure investment in those dams amounting to ~$50 billion over a decade is more than enough (more than double estimates from Stratfor) to produce ~3 times output in hydroelectric power within 15-20 years. All forms of renewable energy will triple within 15-20 years except for biomass. That should put the US at ~40-50% of energy coming from either nuclear power or renewables (as a conservative estimate, but in reality, I suspect we'd see a much faster increase in renewables than we'd expect).

Also, we've see significant improvements in issues resulting from extraction (like greenhouse emissions) as we transition from use of coal to use of natural gas. We also have new technologies that can use released carbon or methane, dissolve them into fuel, and then get another combustion cycle. This can really help reduce emissions to the point where the 40-50% from renewables or nuclear would end up becoming 60-70%.

3. Immigration and Wages:
One of the ways in which the world is moving in is in the direction of automation. Due to automation, many jobs will become automated rather quickly. We also know that wages have been stagnant for ~30-40 years. So our immigration policy must be designed to deal in a world where automation is rampant, where we need to sustain social safety nets for a society where people are living longer, and where we can increase wages.

The first step to shifting an immigration policy that makes sense is to first reduce the amount of unskilled labor immigration. In the short-term, such a policy will create labor shortages to drive up wages. In the medium to long-term, you'll see firms begin to invest more in automation, which'll only accelerate.

In order to keep the dependency ratio from getting out of whack (which either forces higher debt or higher taxes), the US will still need immigration as birth rates are unlikely to spike any time soon. What that means is immigration must be mainly focused on capitalists, the wealthy, skilled labor, and selectively chosen refugee populations. Skilled labor has capital inputs, which means that more skilled labor doesn't necessarily reduce the wages of other skilled labor--and certainly not in the same way unskilled labor can.

4. Manufacturing and Economic Diversification:
As I've said from the beginning economic diversity is valuable cuz it creates economic and financial structures robust to shocks. Diverse economies require several powerful sectors ranging from manufacturing to finance to technology to services, all are necessary in a strong economy. Our current economy is largely built on tech, finance, energy, investment, and services. What's lacking is manufacturing and investment. The goal of diversifying the economy implies that we'd want manufacturing and exports (combined) to be ~20-30% of the economy.

The investment problem can be fixed by incentivizing both private/business investment while also including some public spending. In terms of incentivizing business investment, a simple solution is a corporate tax cut to 20% in addition to a 20% destination-based cash-flow tax (DBCFT) that'd combine to function as a 20% business flat tax. In addition, there'd also be tax cuts for further business investment that'd turn the US into a gigantic tax haven for firms doing real business investment in the US. Public spending can fill in the gap to help profits of capitalists where private capital will not go (and cannot go) like nuclear power.

The DBCFT would also help manufacturing by taxing cash flow of good made abroad being sold in the US. It'd tax offshore earnings, discourage corporate inversions, and encourage firms to onshore manufacturing cuz the entire country would be turned into a massive tax haven for business investment.

Other things we need to be doing involve building modern infrastructure networks to interlink powerful city-regions across the country. What does this imply? It implies a federal high speed rail network. It implies rebuilding and redesigning the interstate highway system to keep up with current geopolitical and financial needs (mainly, this involves rebuilding and some minor expansions).

5. Taxation:
The goal of taxation (other than raising revenue) should be incentivize the accumulation of wealth and upward class mobility among the lower classes while taxing away what's destructive an economy long-term. In order to incentivize the accumulation of wealth, flexible class structures are necessary. Financial history tells us that what creates wealth is a capacity for risk, a value for work, institutional flexibility, sound incentive structures, and an avoidance of debt for most purposes. The goal of taxation should be to promote this.

So if we'd like to reduce the use of debt, we should promptly impose a tax on leverage across the financial system. If we'd like to reward work, we need a progressive tax system wherein workers are taxed less and are encouraged to save more. In order to do this, we can begin by eliminating the payroll tax and raising the standard deduction to $30,000. On top of hiking the standard deduction, the goal should be to implement a flat tax of 20-25%. The flat tax would also tax capital gains as well.

Also, I've previously called for a tax on all extraction. I stand by that, but if that's not possible, then we should go for a tax on carbon or issue securities for carbon ("cap-and-trade"). All environmental degradation should be heavily taxed or the costs on those guilty should be ruthlessly imposed by courts.

With respect to corporate taxes, I outlined what our goal is earlier. We should target a flat 20% business tax with tax cuts for business investment. That way, we'd incentivize exports by not taxing them and it'd allow for a level playing field considering most major countries are either severely protectionist (like Japan, China, and most of East Asia) or are implicitly protectionist or have a very high VAT (usually ~20% in Europe). The goal is to promote development capital, especially in manufacturing.

6. Preventing Imbalances and Allowing Economic Adjustments:
The most likely imbalances this economic model would promote is one of excess capacity, as most of the goals in this model are designed to increase capacity. The part that'd rectify these issues is high wages, which can only be sustained by large amounts of skilled labor. However, high wages will not be enough on their own for a model that promotes capacity as much as this.

Hence, another goal needs to be a strong currency. If the strength of the currency is at risk of shifting the current account balance into a very large negative, we can use protection to offset those impacts long-term. A strong currency is useful because it increases the purchasing power of consumers and helps to sustain a strong consumption base internally.

Another goal also needs to be investment in workers, in their skills, and in their education. Currently, one of the biggest problems we face is young people walking around with a massive debt overhang from going to college. So we need a new system. What I'd suggest is a system wherein the tuition is paid for by the government, but in exchange, the government would receive 7-10% of your income for the next 10-15 years of work after you leave REGARDLESS of how much the person makes. This'll help us deal with the social cost of college without making debt slaves out of our future population. It'd also free us from the idea of "free college" where people go to school to study worthless subjects like women's studies and sociology without suffering a cost. In this case, it'll create incentives wherein those who go to college to get high-paying jobs and the universities who support such structures will benefit. If they choose not to go into higher paying jobs, they'll still be able to go, but they'll be punished without becoming lifelong debt slaves.

Another goal should be to make sure there's some kind of floor for health insurance. Single-payer systems are terrible cuz they control costs by rationing care. The government caps demand in order to control costs, which makes rationing necessary since capping demand removes the flexiblity of price and of supply. In the end, health services have to be rationed. Instead, the goal should be to adapt the ACA to deal with the high premiums in the ACA exchanges. The easiest solution would be to get everyone on the exchange and let them form into a gigantic pool wherein one person can negotiate for tens of millions of people. If we did that, costs would come down and almost everyone would have a base level of health insurance.

Wednesday, March 1, 2017

American Economic Development: A New (or Ancient) Model

In my last post (regarding the structure of American energy), I said that the post was the first post in a series about our energy model in conjunction with an overall American development model going forward. This post will be the second post in that series. This post will be broken into several sections:
1. Introduction
2. Development Model from World War II to the 1970's
3. Development Model from late 1970's to Today
4. New Development Model to Correct Imbalances
5. Conclusion

In order to get into this post, I'll need to begin with the structure of the old development model beginning in the late 70's and early 80's until ~2008. Then, I'll get into the development model that got us here after discussing the history. After that, I'll discuss how our current development model created the existing imbalances in the American economy. From there, I'll propose a new development model that'd systematically eliminate those aforementioned imbalances over decades.

The proposed development model lays out a set of policies specifically designed to rework the entire structural base for our economy by setting key, clear, and decisive economic development goals over the next couple decades including a diverse economy with high, value-added manufacturing that's ~15-20% of the economy within a few decades combined with a reversal of the trade deficit and sustained public investment in an economy where private investment is waiting to multiply on the benefits of public investment. Such a policy can easily achieve 4-5% economic growth rates for the American economy for the next 15-20 years.

Development Model From World War II to 1970's:
The old development model came from an economy designed for very high inflation and government control in the 50's and 60's. This model works fine in a world devastated by war wherein half the world is closed off from the rest cuz there's no risk of flight in capital. What're capitalists gonna do? Go to a place where some strongman took over, is fighting a civil war, and is actively gonna confiscate resources of everyone? If they do so, they don't deserve to manage any capital (and they won't be doing so). Are you gonna go to a war-torn place that's rebuilding? Yes, but that'll happen via capital exports and those places'll end up being net exporters as a result--which'll imply a likely trade surplus, especially in manufactures.

The structure of the financial system was explicitly geared towards creating a consumption driven economy via tight labor controls, tight wage restrictions, restrictions on corporate consolidation, restrictions on liquidation, and restrictions on finance more generally. In a rapidly connecting world on the verge of a tech revolution, these structures just didn't make sense. If they'd been kept in place, many of the innovations we saw over the past ~25-30 years would never have been seen due to the inability to develop and create financial structures over technology networks (something as simple as Google being able to network it's satellite infrastructure across its corporate networks and capital structures in order to provide a service like Google Maps across all its mobile phones would've been impossible due to "regulation").

In the 60's, there were policies designed to prevent free liquidation of assets at 50-80% discounts which could've been used to create tons of value due to "regulation". Instead, the system resolved the costs with high inflation cuz households lost out even though such trade-offs actually destroy long-term capital by removing incentives for a restructuring of financial structures. Hence, the dismantling of these regulations and the entire structure of the progressive world set up in the 20th century had begun. The result was that growth was unleashed, but that growth and all gains of productivity only went to a few at the top.

Growth Model from Late-1970's to Today:
The new growth model reversed those restrictions and allowed for an increase in value creation that all accrued to private capital. This process led to a rise in leverage among households funding a consumption boom with debt that ended up collapsing in 2008. Since 2008, there's been a rapid consolidation across private infrastructure networks which's been unseen in >100 years. What this's done is backlog economic growth by wiping out excess capacity and created huge efficiency gains along with more sound underlying financial structures linking both federal private infrastructure networks and corporate networks more generally. We're still getting ~2-3% growth with ~.5-1% growth in real GDP/capita in spite of this consolidation and the exacerbation of inequality. The use of this as a bad economy is something that is rooted in a fundamental misunderstanding of economics. There's a difference between real wealth creation and economic growth rates.

This growth model has created huge income inequality, pushed value creation into hands of a few, allowed a few to capture all productivity gains, and also forces the US to adopt persistent demand leakages through "free trade" (which really means persistent current account deficits, although they've been strictly limited since the beginning of the Obama administration). All of these factors are acting as a drag on growth in the middle of a global depression.

New Growth Model:
So an economic adjustment involves a restructuring of economic policy that'll create opposite pressure on those existing imbalances. In other words, it means that if our previous economic model resulted in persistent demand leakages, the new economic model reverses those demand leakages, reduces inequality, allows households/workers to receive gains from rising productivity, and increases wages more generally. It also means we need a redirection of resources that'd expand productivity in the private sector and spur private investment across federal networks.

In other words, we need policies to reverse our current account deficit. The US has seen rising productivity in manufacturing while running a persistent trade deficit in manufactures. Such a policy wipes out large portions of the manufacturing base. An economic correction would imply an reduction/elimination of the current account deficit while protecting development capital in domestic manufacturing. In other words, there needs to be some form of protectionism, although it mustn't be too large.

We need policies that'll reduce inequality which means we need to target high wages for workers to raise household income. Such policies involve restructuring immigration to cut off unskilled labor immigration to levels that're only absolutely necessary. It means incentivizing high wages by the creation of high, value-added jobs in both manufacturing and the service sector alongside policies designed to restructure personal debts (including student loan and household debt).

In terms of a policy to spur private investment across federal networks, we need a comprehensive infrastructure package and policy across the entire US connecting states, localities, and city-regions to one another in productive ways. For this, we need centralized financing of investment in infrastructure networks that'll create a flow of private investment to follow across the country.

So what are these policies?
(i) The first will be some kind of a destination-based cash flow tax (called a "border adjustment tax" as proposed by GOP in February 2017) combined with a restructuring of corporate taxes to bring them down. That'll cause onshoring of manufacturing which's only offshored for marginal financial factors. In doing so, such a policy would transfer resources from rent-seekers abroad towards productive, value-added manufacturing domestically while driving growth and helping bring down our trade deficit.
(ii) The second policy is increasing funds in internal investments (ex. infrastructure spending, public works, etc.). Such a policy will bring a wave of private investment to follow in behind it while also driving up growth rates and creating investments that'll pay for themselves in due time.
(iii) The third policy that needs to be resolved is immigration. Unskilled labor immigration needs to be dramatically reduced in order to create labor shortages to increase wages short-term while firms go towards automation and capital investment long-term.
(iv) The fourth policy is to reduce or restructure unsustainable debts (like student debt) across the population. Such a policy would transfer resources to those at the very bottom, redistribute resources, and reduce inequality structurally.

Those four policies from the previous combined (each in small amounts) could easily take an economy growing at 2% to one growing at 4-5% over the next 15-20 years sustainably while setting forth a massive private sector deleveraging. How so? Use public investment of ~1% of GDP to drive growth up by ~1-1.5% minimum (it'll probably be closer to ~1.5-2% or higher due to Keynesian multiplier), combine that with a border adjustment tax that'd onshore manufacturing firms and reduce trade deficit driving ~.5-1% growth annually, and we're already at 4-5% from our 2-3% today. Combine that with some debt restructuring for those truly suffering, a restructuring of immigration laws, further liberalization, and it's easy to see how we can get to even 6-7% growth for 10 years sustainably.

How does this speed up a private sector deleveraging. If the government runs 2-3% of GDP deficits while our current account deficit goes flat, it means the private sector deleveraging in nominal terms is +2-3% of GDP. When we add in 4-5% real growth with ~2% inflation, we get NGDP growing at ~7-8%. In real terms, the value of the debt could be falling by ~10% of GDP in real terms. However, this deleveraging only takes place if we adjust our growth model.

This will transition into my next post regarding the basic ideas and fundamentals of the new development model I've laid out here in regards to the future structural goals of the economy for the 21st (and 22nd) centuries. I'll talk mostly about the kind of energy, geopolitical, and financial shifts we'll need to see in economic structures and in infrastructure.

Friday, February 17, 2017

On American Energy (Including Fracking, Renewables, Big Oil, and the Whatever Else)

This post will be a little bit different from most of my posts and will be purely focused on energy. It'll be the first in a series of posts regarding the current structure of American energy. The next post(s) in the series will discuss where our energy goes from here and how it'll fit into economic development in the 21st and 22nd centuries. This post will be split up into several sections:
1. Introduction
2. American Oil Production (Fracking vs "Big Oil")
3. Geopolitics and Energy Networks of American Energy
4. Renewable Energy
5. Nuclear Energy

1. Introduction:
For most of human history, almost all energy used has either been from animals or fossil fuels. In what we consider "civilization", it's been mostly predicated on fossil fuels or wood. In global energy consumption, the biggest consumers consist of the largest economies (the US, China, Japan, Germany, France, India, etc). The largest producer and consumer of energy is the US.

In the US, the primary sources of energy are oil, natural gas, and coal. Coal in the US is primarily used in electricity production, but it's use has been rapidly falling due to the fact that it's just not profitable. The collapse in oil prices that occurred a few years ago hasn't affected American energy production negatively. Instead, American oil production has actually risen in spite of an oil price collapse--largely due to advancements in fracking.

In terms of the sources of American energy, almost all American energy comes from fossil fuels. According to the EIA, petroleum accounts for ~36%, natural gas accounts for ~26%, coal for ~16%, nuclear for ~10%, and renewable energy for ~9% as of 2016.

2. American Oil Production (Fracking vs "Big Oil):
In the 2000's, almost all American oil produced domestically came from offshore drilling that was from the "big oil" companies. Today, the US produces more oil even though almost all offshore oil production in the US has been shut down. The primary reason is due to technological advancements in hydraulic fracturing (or fracking). After the oil price crash in 2014, there was a wave of consolidation among fracking firms. The amount of active rigs FELL BY >60% even though oil production was flat.

Note that fracking isn't just used for crude oil, but for natural gas as well. In addition to the drop in the necessity for imports, natural gas has been displacing coal as the primary source for electricity production (with natural gas overtaking crude in 2016) last year. Due to the advancements in fracking, most frackers in the US are profitable at ~$50/barrel of crude. The natural gas that comes from fracking is a byproduct, so our frackers don't actively search for the natural gas. They just get it as a byproduct. One of the biggest reasons fracking has been so impactful is cuz it produces BOTH crude oil AND natural gas.

Now, notice natural gas is very different from crude. Crude oil can be put into basically any container and shipped. With natural gas, it must go from pressurized point A to pressurized point B. Hence, it requires an extensive pipeline infrastructure to carry the energy. Due to the advancements in fracking over the past ~6-8 years, we've seen a rapid buildout in natural gas pipeline infrastructure that's the most sophisticated the world has ever seen.

3. Geopolitics and Energy Networks of American Energy:
In terms of consumption of petroleum liquids as of 2016, the US consumes ~19 million barrels/day (mbpd) of petroleum liquids--as defined by the EIA. Petroleum liquids consist of crude oil, natural gas, and biofuels (there's others, but those numbers are negligible). In terms of production, the US produces ~9 mbpd of crude, ~3.5 mbpd of natural gas, and ~1 mbpd of biofuels. So the net gap between production and consumption is ~5-6 mbpd. Keep in mind that in the 2000's, the importation of crude oil alone was almost double the net gap between production and consumption of total petroleum products today.

So, what's the impact of the US producing more petroleum products with the consumption of these products staying relatively flat (or falling)? The impact is that the US needs to import much less of these products from abroad. In the 2000's, the largest American importer of petroleum products was Saudi Arabia. Today, the largest importer is Canada. Almost all energy consumed by the US economy is produced domestically or is sourced from Canada, Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia, and Saudi Arabia. To put simply, >90% of American petroleum liquids come from the Americas and are totally unreliant on supply-lines from the Middle East.

In other words, the US is no longer dependent on foreign oil outside of the Americas implies that the US can effectively retrench from its position as the "global policeman" without facing a risk of disruption in its internal energy flows. Also note that almost all of the refining is done in the US. Actually, the US is a net exporter of refined products (like gasoline, diesel, liquefied natural gas, etc). So what happens is that there's many countries (*cough* Venezuela *cough*) that export the raw materials, our refiners refine the product and ship it back to these countries--or across the world.

4. Renewable Energy:
In terms of the future of energy, fossil fuels will still be used over the next few decades. Renewable energy would seem wonderful because it can embed itself into life-cycles of ecosystems, but it requires a whole host infrastructure and other prerequisites that make it very difficult to rapidly increase energy use from renewables overnight. Renewables create several problems:
1. They don't produce all the time (solar only produces during sunlight, wind only when there's wind, etc.). So storage becomes a problem.
2. They require an energy grid that can go back and forth between different sources of energy. So you need a grid that can handle the ebbs and flows of renewable energy which can turn to fossil fuels when renewables don't produce.
3. Battery technology is nowhere near what it needs to be for energy storage to become a serious alternative. For example, there isn't even enough lithium in the world for it to store 10% of the energy needs necessary if the US were to go to renewable energy.
4. Raw materials (like silicon and lithium) need to create many of these items are environmentally damaging to extract and refine. In fact, they're so environmentally damaging that most developed countries ban their extraction and refinement on domestic soil.

In order to shift to renewable energy, building out the grid infrastructure alone would cost ~$1 trillion and take about a decade. So switching over to >50% renewables won't be feasible for another ~15-20 years. But in the mean time, what renewables can do is to supplement the structure we already have. For example, once you build a solar farm, it just generates energy on its own. You don't have to go out and extract anything or do anything more other than to capture or use the energy. So we're already developing two-tiered systems wherein solar farms or wind farms or geothermal energy is being plugged into the grid and being used whenever it's generating while fossil fuels are used the rest of the time. This process is only accelerating.

5. Nuclear Energy:
My personal favorite kind of energy is nuclear energy. With the latest technology, the issues that've plagued old power plants are issues ranging from nuclear waste to bad design that allows for flooding of the water cooling systems to a whole range of factors. Of course, more recent technology (like thorium reactors) wipes many of these risks or drastically reduces the scale of the impact of these risks.

My point with nuclear energy boils down the fact that the risks of nuclear energy are drastically reduced with more recent technologies. In other words, the most recent technology in nuclear allows for energy that's got low environmental cost and is equivalent to free energy. However, the problem is one of geography. Building nuclear power plants in areas where there's lots of earthquakes or flooding may not be wise. Similarly, nuclear waste needs to be dealt with and all of the infrastructure necessary to link the energy to the grid must be suitable for the geography.

However, there isn't that much energy the US receives from nuclear energy. Going forward, it'd be wise to expand the portion of energy consumed from nuclear energy produced domestically in the US.

Wednesday, January 11, 2017

On All Things Russia

In this post, I'll be talking about the geopolitical financial aspects of Russia alongside it's position to and relationship with the rest of the world, especially the United States. Before I get into this discussion regarding Russia's position in the world and its relationship to the world, I'll first need to get into the geopolitical financial structure of Russia.

Russia is the largest country in the world in terms of landmass, is home to ~143 million people, and has an economy whose size is ~$2 trillion. Russia's the largest producer of energy in the world, and has the second most nuclear capability in the world. The Russian geographic landscape is very sparse and it's very harsh as roughly half (probably more than half) is frozen half the year. It's geographic terrain combined with its heavy reliance on commodities, natural resources, and energy extraction/production makes it a very fragile economy that sinks very quickly when the prices of commodities and energy come under pressure. To emphasize Russian reliance on natural resources extraction and commodity exports, we'll note that 2/3rds of Russian government revenue came from oil, oil products, and oil/natural gas exports in 2013. Of course, Russia also extracts oil and other commodities that feed into aggregate demand for the Russian economy more generally.

Also notice that the sheer size and scope of the Russian landscape imply large borders that're mostly indefensible and virtually impossible to protect. In other words, Russia really has no choice but to have open borders because defending, monitoring, and policing its borders is just unrealistically costly based on sheer size alone. Hence, if we go by Donald Trump's view that you can't have a country without borders, Russia's not really a country.

Now that we've established Russia's dependence on natural resources, commodities, and extractive industries, it becomes important to note that the current international economic situation is one of depression in half the world with large asset bubbles and excess capacity (that's begun collapsing) in the other half of the world. In other words, there's supply/demand imbalances globally where supply's much larger than demand and the adjustment occurring is that aggregate supply is beginning to collapse globally, as I've written before. Of course, commodities, energy, and natural resources are all inputs to production--and hence aggregate supply. So what's the chance that, in the middle of a worldwide depression unseen in ~80 years, we see a sudden rise in the prices of energy, commodities, or natural resources? If you legitimately think high commodity prices are just around the corner, you're delusional (the only chance of this is if there's a very large price split that occurs between Brent and WTI, but even that's something which I find unlikely though it's remotely possible).

Also note that Russian demographics are downright horrible with the population already having peaked. The public health crises in Russia are numerous with alcoholism and STDs rampant across the population. When you add in Russian economic reliance on commodities, energy, and natural resources with a rapidly aging country and a falling population, you get a financial system that's built on a pile of sand. In other words, Russia's utterly incapable of maintaining defense expenditures at current levels, which's why the Kremlin's even begun to cut defense spending. These financial pressures are forcing the Russian government to slash defense spending by ~25-30% in 2016.

Essentially: Russia's barely able to maintain its current geopolitical structure while its economic difficulties will continue to persist for at least the next decade although Russia still does have a lot of nuclear weapons from the days of the USSR. Russia doesn't have the financial power to maintain its current empire for the next few decades. If we look at the current map of Russia, we'll notice that the current borders are less than the ones agreed upon at Brest-Litovsk after Russia lost the war on the Eastern Front to Imperial Germany in World War I. In other words, after a prolonged period of peace in the region, Russia's current borders are what they were after the loss of a war ~100 years ago.

Russia's the weakest it's been--in terms of borders and military power--since before 1775, which was ~250 years ago. And this weakness isn't something that happened to Russia after the loss of a war and internal collapse like after Brest-Litovsk either. On the contrary, this weakness has occurred after decades of peacetime with the world under American hegemony. When you add in Russia's structural economic issues, it means Russia's barely able to financially survive.

From an imperial standpoint, Russia may temporarily be able to make some territorial gains and grab some loot now, but demographics make a military move even 5-10 years down the road virtually impossible. So if Russia doesn't move now, it'll won't be able to expand later. Considering that Russia's cutting defense spending while updating its nuclear capabilities, I doubt they'll even have the financial power to move forward even if they wanted to unless they're willing to risk a total revolution and likely wars on all of its borders. I can spend a lot of time going through the scenarios, but my point is very simple: it's questionable whether Russia has the financial means to maintain its current empire nevertheless expand out further.

As I stated above, Russia's the weakest it's been since the days of Catherine the Great. In today's geopolitical climate, Russia's only a regional power with serious internal difficulties. Russia's a very fragile empire being held together geopolitically by its financial system of oligarchs who're able to hold the space together via financial control over the natural resources, energy, commodities, and the supply lines to transmit all of those resources.

TO SUM UP: Russia isn't really a country. It's a gas station (by gas station, I mean energy more generally) masquerading as a country.

Russia isn't really a world power anymore. It's a regional power that only has power on the world stage because of its nuclear stockpiles from the Cold War Era in the 20th century. Russia is waning in strength and facing lots of internal difficulties. This's why Russia's now being outspent by the US, China, India, and Saudi Arabia on defense spending today. Russia's naval capabilities are virtually non-existent. Hell, the entire country has only one warm water port at Sevastopol which Russia only recently got with the annexation of Crimea.

However, there's plenty of areas of common interest in regards to the relationship between the US and Russia. It's pretty clear that the Kremlin did not want Hillary Clinton to be President and did everything possible--like using a front for the GRU (*cough* Wikileaks *cough*) to leak "hacked" emails by John Podesta--due to Putin's personal dislike of Hillary Clinton and out of fear for her foreign policy. With that being said, on places like the Middle East or in ideological battles against Jihadi Islamists, there's lots of common ground for Russia and the US to work with one another.

So while Russia has basically been reduced to a regional power, it still wields a decent amount of power globally although that's only due to its nuclear stockpiles from the Cold War. It's having difficulty keeping itself together, but it's not in the interest of the US (or any other country for that matter) to fragment the Russian Federation simply because of the nuclear problem.

Wednesday, December 21, 2016

American Banking Shifts Across Financial History

This post will be about how the structure of American banking throughout the history of the United States. This post'll be split into several sections:
1. Introduction
2. Oligopoly Banking
3. "Regulated", Decentralized Banking
4. Conclusion

1. Introduction:
I'll start off by first referencing an old post that I did on the initial design of the American banking system and then move on to the two "extremes" of banking that we've had in the history of American finance. The former is what's effectively a banking oligopoly wherein financial power is centered out of a few large banks that control the entire system. The latter financial system is one of decentralized finance that's largely locally determined. Throughout most of US history, the systems have been somewhere in between.

The first extreme is closest to what the US currently has. In this instance, financial markets are relatively "deregulated". In order to deal with this terminology, I first need to clearly communicate what I mean by "regulated" and "deregulated". Within the case of the United States, the term "regulated"--as I will use it--implies 4 key constraints on banking:
1. To cross state lines
2. Limits on branch banking
3. Limits on corporate consolidation
4. Limits on asset-backed securitization
Note: These constraints are often packaged together and they may or may not overlap.

2. Oligopoly Banking:
Most importantly, the oligopoly style of banking system is relatively, or totally, deregulated in the 4 key constraints above. In this kind of a system, banks often cross state lines with no real way to stop them. Branch banking across various states is easy. Corporate consolidation isn't just easy, but also common, so if banks find themselves in trouble they usually just get taken over another financial institution. Another key aspect is asset-backed securitization that allows for banks to take smaller and more local assets, package those assets into a security, and sell them to various financial institutions across the world.

It's commonly thought that the first asset-backed security in US history was created in 1980, but it was really created in 1790 (as I've written before). It's also thought that the first collateralized debt obligation (CDO) was created in 1980 in the United States. This is also patently false. The first CDO was created in 1851 to finance the production of railroads across the Union (the result was a rail network by 1860 larger than the rest of the world combined). So clearly, the US has a long history of "deregulated" financial markets.

In the oligopoly based banking system, the idea is for private capital to use the federal government as a tool to impose a system by which there's long-term investment, centrally directed, while still allowing for a decentralized consumption base (it's also a goal of the more decentralized private banking system as well, but it's accomplished by differing means). So the direction of investment comes from private-public partnerships and requires an oligopoly on banking.

In this kind of a financial system, you end up having serious deflationary pressure, if not outright deflation. Inflation becomes very difficult to come by because the link between money supply and inflation is severed, as I've previously written. If there's any sort of issue with smaller banks, they get absorbed by larger banks in corporate takeovers. So if there's a lot of smaller banks, those banks usually end up either failing or being absorbed into corporate conglomerates.

Also note that due to the fact that the vast majority of financial assets are owned by a few large financial institutions, it makes corporate consolidation easier for other firms who can use the large banks to broker such deals. So in essence, the oligopoly style banking system I'm describing makes it rather simple for all firms to take advantage of economies of scale. To put simply, this kind of a banking system doesn't just foster scaling effects in banking, but in virtually all kinds of firms ranging from industry to technology to services to any industry that has economic advantages by economies of scale.

The oligopoly type of banking system in the US has a history of concentrating financial, political, and economic power in the hands of a few. In effect, this kind of a banking system has had a historical tendency to exacerbate income and wealth inequality. It is economically efficient, but this kind of financial system is ruthless in terms of social costs. It can place very difficult financial circumstances upon communities of all kinds.

3. "Regulated", Decentralized Banking:
The second extreme of banking is the decentralized form of banking. This type of banking has its roots in the old Jacksonian era of American politics. It's built on the idea that banks and concentrated financial power are dangerous to republican institutions due to the way they can impose social costs upon a community against their will. The Jacksonians view the centralization of power as a real threat to republican institutions and a real cause of disillusionment and fear among common populations.

In order to regenerate republican institutions, the Jacksonians generally call for a rapid reduction of federal financial power by effectively letting states put up barriers to interstate banking. They did this by "free banking" where each state would have its own banking laws, making it difficult or prohibitively costly for banks to be more than regional (maybe they'd cross state lines, but it was tough to go across regions due to having to deal with state by state regulation).

So the idea of the Jacksonians was to leave the policy of banking to the states. Later on, the progressives picked up many of these same policy positions and ideas that they'd run on. These ideas primarily involved a banking system that's totally dependent on local and community banking. Eventually, this view was imposed by strict regulation on the use of financial derivatives.

One of the key aspects of a "regulated" and decentralized banking system was that it decentralized the power and decision making of finance to local communities and states. Due to this fundamental aspect, this kind of banking system has the tendency to be inflationary--especially during given conditions and time periods--since households have a lot of power, can vote themselves purchasing power, and then demand surges at key points. In other words, the losses of a recession are borne with higher inflation instead of higher unemployment or lower wages because workers and households have more control and influence over the factors of production.

The "regulated" and decentralized banking systems have also had a history of high rates of bank failure because all banking is local. If a bank fails, it just goes out of business instead of being consolidated into a larger network. So either the depositors get hit or there's deposit insurance. The Jacksonians never pushed for deposit insurance, but the progressives did to offset the losses to depositors. You can have either or, but it doesn't change the underlying structure of the financial system.

The Jacksonians went to more of a "free banking" style of a decentralized and "regulated" financial system, but the progressives took a more top-down approach. They decided everything would center from the Fed and the Treasury. The progressives also decided that it'd be a good idea to place branching restrictions on banks in an order to prevent them from crossing state lines. That way, banking couldn't have an oligopoly by the very nature of the system.

4. Conclusion:
Throughout US history, we've gone back and forth in between these two extremes. Currently, we're living under the oligopoly extreme of the financial system. Personally, I do not like the "regulated" and decentralized style of banking that's favored by the progressives and Jacksonians. At my core, I'm a Hamiltonian who prefers a strong base and power center in the political and financial system for private capital that often supersedes the power of the larger populace at large.

As I've written before, Hamilton created a financial system that ended up being much closer to the oligopoly style of banking after the birth of the Republic. Eventually, Andrew Jackson totally shook this system up to impose a more decentralized and "regulated" financial system (albeit the consideration by many libertarians as "less regulated", although it's important to note that what we consider as 'libertarian economics' has a historical track record of going along with Jacksonian political economy in the United States) after his successful attempt in destroying the Second Bank of the United States. Then, the first CDO was created in 1851 and the resolution of the 1857 crisis started to push this country more and more toward the oligopoly style of banking system.

As we approached the Civil War, the political divides were fundamentally economic and financial divides built around the banking system and the power of private capital. Private capital was on the side of the Union, which's why Lincoln ended up being the man who forged a Union. However, this banking system led to a gross amount of income and wealth inequality in the Gilded Age (quite similar to social environment we've got now). So over time, the progressives realized they could win elections by running against the banks.

Eventually, it took the Great Depression for the progressives to impose their kind of banking system (even though they got the reasons for the Great Depression entirely wrong and they actually worsened it due to Woodrow Wilson's terrible economic and foreign policy), which they did. So for the next ~40-50 years this kind of a banking system held until the inflation in the 70's. So over time, such restraints on the banking system were loosened. And here we are now.

Tuesday, October 18, 2016

American Foreign Policy and The Rest of the World

It's been a while since my last post (largely due to my activity in the political campaigns which's been eating up most of my time), but that post was primarily about the structure of international geopolitics, the rise of market-state empires, and how international deal-making takes place. I've also written about the liquidity flows across borders along with the financial implications of these shifts. This post will be about American foreign policy in this kind of a world.

We're currently in the middle of what's a Second Great Depression (with the United States being relatively insulated from the rest of the world). In Europe, half of it is in depression (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Spain, much of Eastern Europe) with the other half in the middle of a massive bubble (Scandinavia, Germany, and others). A couple of years ago, I wrote about how there're serious underlying problems in the European banking system which've just now begun to surface (Deustche Bank is just the beginning). This post is about how the current unfolding events impact foreign policy, both domestically and internationally.

Middle East:
In the Middle East, we've got what's effectively a real-life shitshow. You've got several key players: Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey, and Israel who're the real powers of the region. Everywhere outside of their domain is basically a conflict amongst themselves. In Yemen, there's a complex proxy war between different power players that crosses across many factions. We see a similar phenomenon in Iraq with different kinds of rebels, Turks, Kurds, ISIS, and Assad loyalists grappling for power.

The one exception to this rule is in Syria, which is run by Assad and basically a puppet of the Kremlin. However, Syria's also involved in this chaos. We've seen a total breakdown of civil order across most of the region. When we see a collapse of civil order, we end up with warlords, which is what we've got. As I've written previously, ISIS is a warlord state. After the collapse of the Syrian nation-state which's mostly run by random warlords, Assad has now become another warlord.

In such a climate, it seems like the US has taken a balance of power approach that I suggested several years ago wherein the Americans fund all sides. As a side starts to become more and more powerful, the strategy is to divert support to others to maintain the balance of power. The balance-of-power strategy came out of the Iraq invasion which was simply deemed too costly to the American people.

Going forward, the most sensible strategy is a balance-of-power as it allows for flexibility to adapt in any scenario. I suspect this's what we continue to see for the next few decades. Any sort of invasion is simply too costly for American taxpayers to withstand while a total and complete pullout of the region risks giving foreign powers like Russia far more say in what happens over there.

Currently, most of Africa's in total and utter chaos. As I've discussed, most of the countries in Africa get their revenue from the exports of raw materials and commodities. I've also written about how such systems can (and have) created political and economic instability whilst making capital formation effectively impossible. Such systems've distorted African governments to the point where there's basically little hope. Also note that Africa's having a population surge while it's landscape is basically getting raped.

Due to the nature of what's going on in Africa, there's a real chance we see very large population corrections there. What does this mean? It means people who'll be forced to move (and die). There'll also be a landgrab for its resources from foreign powers--as I've also discussed before--where various empires effectively bring the area into their control.

Other than what I listed above, there's really not a whole lot of ways Africa's a factor in terms of foreign policy.

China and Southeast Asia:
I first wrote about China's economic and geopolitical problems a couple of years ago. China's currently in the midst of an economic transition where growth rates've fallen (which was one of the scenarios I listed); however, they haven't fallen as quickly as I thought they would've. With all that being said, Chinese growth rates continue to fall slowly although they're still rather high. The more China grows now, the less it'll grow later on. If you wonder why this must necessarily be the case, I reference you to my post about the structure of the Chinese financial system in relation to its economic growth model. The growth is simply not sustainable, it's founded on an unprecedented credit boom, and it looks more and more like Japan in the late 1980's as every day passes by.

Due to the structure of the Chinese financial system and its economic growth model, China's been forced to build an empire in order to satisfy its ridiculous demand for natural resources. This demand has been falling (as I said it would) for the past few years which's left commodity prices in the dumps (as I also said was likely). As growth rates fall and China's insatiable demand for natural resources becomes more satiable, the need for China to be externally focused will decline. Eventually, China's demand for commodities will fall, but it'll still exist. So what does that imply? It implies that China will still need to secure its trade routes, but it also implies China'll be more internally focused during its economic rebalancing.

The key issue of Chinese empire isn't so much the areas being effectively colonized (like Africa), but about the other linkages the Chinese economy has developed--mainly in Southeast Asia. China has currently been expanding its influence in Southeast Asia by building its islands, arming its fishing boats, using economic power to control countries in Southeast Asia, and via other means. In order to counterbalance this impact, the US will be increasing its presence in Southeast Asia whether or not the TPP gets through.

In other words, we'll be witnessing a strengthening of ties between the US and most Southeast Asian countries including Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam, and others. We're already seeing the beginnings of this. As China's economic transition continues, they'll be relatively contained for the most part.

Russia and Second Cold War:
As of right now, the US is basically in a Second Cold War with Russia. The Russians've hacked into various political parties or certain candidate's (Hillary Clinton) campaign's personal files (like emails) and have published them on Wikileaks after slightly doctoring them in an effort to wage a disinformation campaign. These are the same kinds of tactics that were used by the Russians in the early Cold War era. There's also been several people from within our intelligence community who've leaked files and then took asylum in Russia (like Edward Snowden) who're likely traitors. Again, these are Cold War tactics.

In regions like Eastern Europe or in the Middle East (mainly Syria), we're seeing the Russian government build ties into insurgencies or with puppet regimes/dictators like in Ukraine. Of course, I wrote about this a couple of years ago as well. The US is taking up a containment policy (as I've discussed before) involving a series of Eastern European countries and Turkey, although Turkey's case is a bit different as they've gotten slightly more friendly to Russia as of late.

The Cold War went on for 45 years after World War II until it culminated in the fall of the Berlin Wall. This time around, Russia's much weaker and already in dire and desperate financial straits. Russia's current economy is almost entirely dependent on natural resources and commodity exports. Due to the current situation regarding commodity prices and the price of natural resources, Russia can't continue to sustain its empire.

So instead of a 40-45 year Cold War, we'll be looking at one that doesn't last longer than 20-25 years (probably much less than that). There's many scenarios and it's difficult to say exactly what happens, but the fragmentation of Russia is a real political risk. Either way, one thing is clear. Russia's reliance on natural resources and commodity exports is its primary weakness. This reliance limits the power Russia can wield and the scale of its empire.

Russia looks like it's in terminal decline and nearing its end. The Second Cold War could be Russia's last stand in its current form. A possible scenario for Russia is that it'll recede to the Muscovy territory, which was the domain of the Russian Empire in ~1600.

Liberal Democracies in Asia:
When I say the liberal democracies in Asia, I'm speaking about India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Japan, and other countries in Asia that're not located out of Central Asia. These countries have a history of friendly relations with the United States and I don't see that changing. Many of these countries (ex. India, Indonesia, Malaysia, etc) are developing countries with vibrant industries that're looking for foreign investment to build infrastructure or to invest in companies or communities or whatever else. The interesting part is that the US's the most capital-rich country in the world while currently running current account deficits; hence importing capital even though capital scarcity is no problem at all--which I've written as being one of the biggest problems the US and the world face due to the implied distortions in global financial markets.

So what we're likely to see are increased financial ties from countries like the US (and probably Japan) into the liberal democratic countries of South and Southeast Asia. As I've stated, China's getting more aggressive in South and East China Seas which's forcing a larger US imperial footprint in the region too. That larger imperial footprint is likely to coincide with a furthering of investments and financial/economic ties between these countries (after all, this's the purpose of TPP).

I've also written about how basically every "civil war" in Asia east of the Middle East is a proxy war between India and China. In this proxy war, the US will take the side of India and probably try to create an alliance of South and Southeast Asian countries (not allied with China like Pakistan or Sri Lanka) alongside of Japan and perhaps even South Korea.

I suspect we're likely to see a further expansion of missile defense systems and weapons deals with all of the liberal democratic countries in Asia, largely to ward off Chinese aggression. To gauge the impacts of this long-term are difficult cuz it'll depend on how the Chinese economic rebalancing takes place. Thus far, I'm assuming it'll be relatively neat. However, there's a chance such a rebalancing'll be rather messy which means China could be on the verge of fragmentation.

Overall, American foreign policy will likely be more restrained over the next decade than it's been in almost a full century. There's a population that seems weary of war, but there's also an empire that needs to be managed. The primary tools of engagement'll likely be financial measures used in most of the world. There'll still be weapons deals or alliances in strange ways, but there won't be much more than that.

I also expect the large US trade deficit to fall over the next decade or so, especially considering that 70% of the American trade deficit is from China alone and both Presidential candidates're now running on a platform of going after China's disregard for international trade agreements along with its repeated violations. I suspect the same could happen to Japan. Considering that 90% of the American current account deficit is with China and Japan, the current account deficit'll basically be eliminated. That'll mean we'll be seeing more net capital exports from the United States.

It's also important to note that ~70% American energy is sourced from North America and almost all of it's sourced from the Americas (the US produces half with rest coming primarily from Canada, Mexico, Colombia, and a handful of other places). The US no longer needs Middle Eastern oil nor does it need to import much energy, so there's less of a need to engage in a foreign policy to secure those resources.

With all that being said, the US will remain as the global leader, but it'll also be taking an international role that's effectively quasi-isolationist with a focus on financial ties with ideological allies or countries with liberal capitalist democratic systems of political economy.